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Brazilian Economic situation and the presidential election of 2014
Tony Volpon (Nomura Securities)
By Tony Volpon (Nomura Securities) | published 04/04/2015 | # 47
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Structurally, the end of the commodity boom can now be dated to 2011, one year into [Dilma’s] first term, as Brazil’s terms of trade began to deteriorate and the country began to see a marked economic deterioration.

Though the opposition, often with reason, blames Rousseff’s policies for economic underperformance, these policies were, however inadequate, genuine attempts to respond to a much less supportive external environment.

Unfortunately, it is unlikely that the external factors are going to be better over the next four years; it seems that the years in which all Brazilians could improve their lot in life are over, for now. Choices will have to be made and priorities will have to be set.

President Rousseff will now have to look beyond the class struggle rhetoric of her campaign and show whether she can regain the trust of the south and southeast of the country that voted for the opposition by a 2:1 margin, and is responsible for around 70% or more of the country’s GDP. Without their support there is little chance that Brazil will see investment rates – which at a paltry 17% of GDP are the lowest of any of the major emerging market economies – rise. Original, Vincent Bevins, Folha


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Inspiring quotes:
Friedrich Nietzsche:
There are no facts, only interpretations.
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About the author...

Aldair Massardi, 42, is a Brazilian guy not involved in corruption, not in HSBCleaks list and who has no apartment in Miami (unfortunately).

He has never created fake firms in US and will never become president, which are, in his view, important credentials.